Our Daily Predictions

The Fed just held rates at 3.50–3.75% on April 29 — what could be Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair. The decision was nearly unanimous and markets had priced in 100% probability of a hold going in. Inflation remains elevated at around 3%, oil prices are surging past $100/barrel due to Middle East tensions, and the labor market is stable but not strong enough to justify cuts. Kevin Warsh is set to take over as Fed chair in June and his first meeting will likely be about building consensus, not making big moves. There is virtually no scenario where the Fed cuts in June. The market at 96% is accurate — if anything, we think it might be slightly underpriced given the hawkish dissents at the April meeting. We're going firmly YES on this one.

This is the most interesting market today. Putin has proposed a temporary ceasefire around May 9 (Victory Day) — confirmed by the Kremlin, and Trump said he suggested the idea during a call with Putin. Zelenskyy is seeking details but is pushing for a longer-term deal. The Kremlin has stated the ceasefire "will be implemented" regardless of Ukraine's response, framing it as a unilateral Russian move. At 93%, the market is pricing this as near-certain. We think that's roughly right — a short-term ceasefire around May 9 is very likely. However, the key question is whether the resolution criteria count a temporary 24–48 hour pause as a "ceasefire." If so, the 93% is fair. If it requires a more durable agreement, we'd be more cautious. We recommend reading the Polymarket resolution rules carefully before trading this one. Our lean is YES, but with medium confidence given the resolution ambiguity.

With $595M in trading volume, this is Polymarket's biggest market of 2026 — and for good reason. Vance sits at 39%, well ahead of the field for the Republican 2028 nomination. As sitting Vice President he has the clearest path — incumbency advantage, Trump's implicit backing, and no obvious challenger has emerged. History strongly favors sitting VPs getting the nomination when the outgoing president is term-limited. That said, 2.5 years is a long time in politics. A recession, a foreign policy failure, or a falling-out with Trump could shift everything. We think 39% slightly undervalues Vance given the structural advantages of his position. We're going YES, but this is a long-duration bet — expect volatility and don't oversize your position. The real edge here is in the patience.